Care Robots

Yes, the humanoid robots are coming, in ±2028, and they are coming to help us! Or at least; that is how the history will start. Would you like to receive care from a robot? Probably not, right!? But what if your alternative is getting no or super low quality care? We have never lived together with humanoid robots. It will be extremely strange at first. But soon the next generation children will have never lived in a world without humanoid robots all over the place.

Why are the robots coming now? Why aren't they here already, or why not in a hundred years?
Humanoid robots are build up from 4 parts: software, computer hardware (including sensors), mechanical hardware (including electric motors), and batteries. It is only now in 2024 that ALL these parts at a sufficient level. It is emergencing now and not later, because it is possible now, and many want it.
Well, to be more precise, the biggest piece of the puzzle is: Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), and this piece is NOT ready yet. Everybody is shouting "our product contains Artificial Intelligence", while it is not much more than machine learning, basic neural nets. The wait is for the technological singularly, which basically is the moment when AGI is smart enough to improve itself. When given this task and enough compute, the speed of development is best described by the words 'technological explosion'.

The first generations care robots
I expect the fist care robots to only assist the caregiver, and help you with some simple stuff in the house, not really giving care, because the first generation will be pretty dumb and clumsy. Too dangerous, not because of bad intentions but because of being like a child.
How much time does it take to go from one robot generation to the next? I would say 7 years, but maybe that is old fashioned linear thinking. Or maybe not if the next generation is 100x better each time. How good will the 4th generation be? Super-human?! Better than a human in almost everything?! Wow..

I am a professional care giver, will I lose my job?
You will not lose your job any time soon. For starters because it is 2024 now. The first humanoid robots will start to do work in around 2028. This first generation will be dumb and clumsy. Their first jobs will be tasks that can not harm people or cause great financial loss. If you are a really good care person/professional, then you know that giving good care ain't a simple job. Often working in care doesn't pay that well, but that is because we all together don't wanna pay much for the care of another person. And because working in care often doesn't pay much, does it do attract less capable people. High quality care ain't an easy job, and doing that job should pay really well. We should not trust care to less capable people. The first generation of robots are not fit to give quality care because a similar reason; too dumb and clumsy. They can not do this job but they can cause a lot of damage. What they can do in care, is: assist the care giver, and help you with stuff in the house.

And there is one more reason why you will not lose your care job any time soon. The birthrate in many counties is too low, meaning that woman on average make less new little humans than are needed to keep the amount of people in a country constant. More people die than get born. There will be more old people, less young people. There will NOT be enough people of working age to carry the country! Robot development is therefore being supported by many countries, especially China, to fill the coming gap in the work-force. We hope that people + robots will be enough to prevent a collapse of societies. A bit strange to hear as we have always been warned about overpopulation.

But then, in around 2050, the capacities of the by then 4rd generation of humanoid robots has become like superhuman. The whole world will be so different by that time.

Human care vs Robot care, pro's and con's.
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The financial cost of a care Robot care.
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